A Liberal and European Future for the UK?
By Dr. Julie Smith
The Liberal Democrats are an avowedly internationalist party, committed to the UK’s membership in the European Union. For decades this stance was known, but little discussed. Europe was not a salient issue in British politics, though it increasingly divided the Conservative Party, particularly during the coalition years from 2010 to 2015. Former Prime Minister David Cameron’s misguided decision to hold a referendum on membership was thus intended to resolve the splits in his own party. In this it was a failure.
For the last four years the result has been visceral divisions across the UK. Families and friends have fallen out over what is effectively a new cleavage in British politics. The constituent parts of the UK risk being torn apart as well. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay in the EU; England and Wales voted to leave. Since there was no provision for any part of the Union voting “remain” to block departure, this has led Scottish politicians to complain of Scotland being taken out of the EU against its will. In turn, this has provided the pro-EU Scottish National Party (the SNP) with the opportunity to push for a second independence referendum, having failed to secure its dream in 2014.
Meanwhile, in Northern Ireland, the prospect of Brexit has caused far greater problems than elsewhere. Northern Ireland shares a land border with the Republic of Ireland, a country that will remain a member of the EU if and when the UK departs. The legacy of “the Troubles,” which were only resolved in 1998 with the Belfast Agreement, means peace and stability are more precious and more fragile than in the rest of the UK. The lure of staying in the EU means that the idea of a reunited Ireland cannot be excluded. It would prove a further nail in the coffin of the United Kingdom if it were to come about.
The Conservative Party’s official name is the Conservative and Unionist Party, reflecting a commitment to the United Kingdom – and they are proudly flaunting this in their 2019 manifesto. Yet, that party’s determination to “get Brexit done” could put the very future of the UK at risk. The SNP risks the UK collapsing by design; the Conservatives risk the UK collapsing as collateral damage caused by Brexit. Meanwhile, the Labour Party is halfhearted in its commitment to the EU. Its leader says he would seek to renegotiate with the EU27 (“What, again?” one imagines the EU27 leaders saying with varying degrees of frustration and bemusement) before holding another referendum in which he would not take a stance on supporting the deal he had negotiated or not. The leader of the official opposition may prefer to consider this as “obeying the will of the people,” but it reflects a marked lack of leadership or any real commitment to the EU. Moreover, this stance would weaken his hand in negotiating with the EU27 if they felt they could not rely on him upon to fight for membership if they made the concessions he was asking for. This scarcely inspires confidence in the prospect of a Labour Government, which would create a further period of uncertainly, leaving the UK still vulnerable to Brexit and internal fracture.
In contrast to the main parties, the Liberal Democrats are clear that membership in both Unions – the UK and the EU – is vital. Working together within the UK and with our neighbors in the EU, we are stronger. At a time when NATO is facing challenges on various fronts – whether from the U.S. president or his French and Turkish counterparts – the need for Europeans to cooperate on shared defense and security matters is increasingly vital. By leaving the EU, the UK’s security interests would not change, but our ability to act on those interests would diminish. Far from “going global,” as the Conservatives have claimed, a United Kingdom outside the EU would see its power and influence decrease, even if the UK miraculously remained together. We would have to work much harder on our bilateral relations with other states in the security field simply to stand still. Far from enhancing our status, Brexit would weaken it.
Brexit would also damage the UK in economic terms. Even if we could swiftly reach trade deals with the EU, U.S., and various Commonwealth countries, it is highly unlikely that these would offset the loss of the benefits EU membership renders to the British economy. This in turn would make British citizens poorer and reduce the monetary value of our commitment to NATO, measured as a percentage of GDP, which would inevitably decline. Already the prospect of Brexit and associated uncertainty has reduced the value of sterling, meaning the UK can get far less “bang for its buck” in defense procurement. Liberal Democrats calculate that remaining in the EU would produce a GBP 50 billion dividend, and that the UK economy would be 2 percent larger by 2024-2025.
For all these reasons – the future of the United Kingdom, our role in the world, and our economic well-being, along with myriad others, particularly environmental policy – the Liberal Democrats believe that the top priority for this election is clear: to stop Brexit.
Of course, there are those who ask: “What happened to democracy?” or “What about the will of the people expressed in that June 2016 referendum?” The honest answer is, just as we don’t cease to hold liberal democrat values if we lose an election, so we didn’t stop believing the UK is better off in the EU than outside when we heard the results of the referendum. Clearly, a majority of voters didn’t agree with us in 2016, as 52 percent voted to leave the EU. In a democracy, however, everyone has the right to change his or her mind. If enough people do so and return Liberal Democrat MPs to Westminster, the priority will be to stop Brexit.
Julie Smith (Baroness Smith of Newnham) is Reader in European Politics at Cambridge University and a member of the House of Lords. She is the Liberal Democrat Spokes on Defence in the Lords and a member of the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee. Her academic research focus on the history and politics of the EU, and the UK’s relations with it.
She writes in a personal capacity.
"Flags outside Parliament" by ChiralJon is licensed under CC BY-NC 2.0
