The Fate of EU-Philippine Relations Lies in the Philippines' Presidential Election
By Manuel R. Enverga III
On 9 May, over 60 million registered voters in the Philippines will have the opportunity to select a candidate to become the country’s new president. The elected candidate will determine strategic priorities as the country’s chief foreign policy architect. Among the ten individuals campaigning to be the country’s head of state, the two frontrunners are former Senator Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. and Maria Leonor Gerona Robredo, the current Vice President.
Based on statements made during their campaigns, the two candidates appear to have differing views regarding foreign policy. Marcos has indicated his intention to continue the “independent foreign policy” of the current President, Rodrigo Duterte. In practice, it is a stance that eschews the country’s western allies, such as the United States and the European Union, and cultivates favorable relations with the People’s Republic of China. Robredo’s position favors multilateralism and the strengthening of ties with the U.S., EU, Australia, and the Philippines’ neighbors in Southeast Asia. The two candidates’ positions represent diverging possibilities for the future of the Philippine’s external affairs, and for EU-Philippine relations in particular.
EU-Philippine Relations at Present
Diplomatic relations between the Philippines and the European bloc have been tense since Duterte implemented his “War on Drugs” following his election in 2016. Amnesty International reported that the program resulted in more than 7,000 extrajudicial executions in six months, which disproportionately targeted lower-class individuals suspected of being small-time drug dealers. The EU expressed alarm over the high number of deaths, with Members of the European Parliament calling for the suspension of the Philippines’ participation in the Generalised Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+). The removal of the trade agreement would have threatened over 6,000 Philippine products that entered the EU’s common market duty-free. In response, Duterte delivered several expletive-laden speeches attacking the European bloc for interfering in the Philippine’s domestic affairs. Duterte’s statements notwithstanding, the Philippines continues to benefit from the benefits of the GSP+, which is expected to be in effect until the end of 2023.
Despite the tensions apparent during the Duterte administration, the European bloc has continued to pursue its priority areas in the Philippines, which include supporting efforts towards achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals and assisting the government’s peace efforts in Mindanao, where the Philippines currently faces a militant Islamist insurgency. The EU also supported the Philippines’ COVID-19 response through its contributions to COVAX, the World Health Organization Program to accelerate vaccine distribution to developing countries.
The Future of EU-Philippine Relations
Speculating now on the future of EU-Philippine relations following the Philippine elections, there are a number of areas that can be impacted by the next President. The first is the EU-Philippine Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA), which came into effect in 2018. Its implementation has been stalled due to disagreements between Manila and Brussels, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic. Discussions on implementing the Agreement resumed in February this year, but it is likely that the next President will be responsible for executing its stipulations, which cover a variety of policy areas including economic cooperation, good governance, migration, transnational crime, and respect for human rights.
The matter of human rights in particular is pertinent given the notoriety that Duterte’s drug war has gained. Based on their campaign statements, it appears that the two leading candidates plan to combat illegal narcotics in different ways. Marcos has declared that he would pursue big-time drug lords, rather than those operating at the street level. Robredo has indicated that she would focus on rehabilitation and prevention. By repairing its human rights record, the Philippines can augment its opportunities to receive support in the future and diminish the threat of losing GSP+ privileges.
A second area of cooperation to consider is the territorial dispute between the Philippines and China. In 2016, the EU declared support for the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) arbitral award, which ruled China did not have the legal basis to claim historic rights over much of the South China Sea, and that its infrastructure development on disputed islands represented breeches of Philippine sovereignty. In a statement regarding the dispute, the EU’s High Representative stated that the regional bloc was: “committed to maintaining a legal order…based upon the principles of international law, UNCLOS, and the peaceful settlement of disputes.” It appears that a Robredo victory would mean a more assertive role for the EU, as she has called for the support of sympathetic allies in enforcing the 2016 arbitral award. The opposite is to be expected under a Marcos administration, which would likely carry on Duterte’s position of not enforcing the UNCLOS decision.
It is noteworthy that the Philippines is also implicated in the EU’s Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, which was published in 2021. The document outlines the European bloc’s approach to the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing security cooperation, economic imperatives, and connectivity between Europe and Asia as prominent issue areas. The Strategy identifies the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a “core Indo-Pacific partner” that can support its actions in the region. The Philippines is significant in this regard, due to its role as Country Coordinator for EU-ASEAN dialogue between 2021 and 2024. The incoming President would, therefore, be involved in managing the EU’s coordination with ASEAN, a role that can facilitate or impair Europe’s Indo-Pacific strategy.
Conclusion
May 9 is election day in the Philippines, but it is also Europe Day, a celebration of peace and unity in Europe. As Europeans commemorate the Schuman Declaration, which initiated regional integration, Filipinos will be at the polls selecting a new head of state. What remains to be seen is who will be the new chief architect of Philippine foreign policy, and how will their administration will impact relations with the EU moving forward.
Manuel R. Enverga III is Director and Assistant Professor at the European Studies Program of the Ateneo de Manila University, where he also serves as Jean Monnet Coordinator. His teaching and research has focused on a diverse set of topics, which include European politics, culture, regionalism, and digital diplomacy. Outside of his academic work, he hosts The Eurospeak Podcast, where he and his guests discuss how European cultural influences impact daily life.
Cover photo is in the public domain in the Philippines and possibly other jurisdictions because it is a work created by an officer or employee of the Government of the Philippines or any of its subdivisions and instrumentalities, including government-owned and/or controlled corporations, as part of his regularly prescribed official duties.
