Trump’s Coup and Biden’s Foreign Policy
By Mitch Ruhl
Following U.S. President Joe Biden’s electoral victory in November, U.S. allies and partners around the world sighed in relief at the now inevitable departure of former U.S. President Donald Trump from the White House. However, the January 6, 2021 coup attempt left those same allies and partners aghast—more than any previous scandal of Trump’s tumultuous tenure. Even though the coup attempt had no chance of success given the largely ceremonial role of the proceedings and the clear lack of military support, the mere attempt at an autogolpe (“self-coup”) reminded so many of how fragile democracy can be. It is particularly disturbing that most of the Republican Party (GOP) has chosen to evade any sort of responsibility or accountability for Trump to put a hard stop to any future sedition attempts from a future, more competent president. Many are left to wonder how the insurrection and its aftermath will affect Biden’s foreign policy. While U.S. allies gave a near universal condemnation of the act of sedition and terrorism that occurred at the U.S. Capitol, the United States’ enemies and rivals looked on in glee.
In China, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has repeatedly alleged blatant hypocrisy in how U.S. mainstream media describes the insurrection and how the United States describes pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong. On the same day, China solidified its authoritarian grip on the island metropolis with mass arrests of pro-democracy advocates, including an American. However, the siege of the U.S. Capitol overtook the news cycle and left the U.S. diplomatic corps powerless to respond to a normally hot topic human rights issue. As Biden starts his presidency, his primary concern is to stabilize the United States domestically. Between COVID-19, a struggling economy, hyper-partisanship, and political violence, he has his work cut out for him. For the Biden Administration to take on China, he must rebuild the United States’ alliances and a broad international coalition. By the time he achieves this, the mass arrests will be old news, but China will continue its oppressive abuses there and elsewhere and Biden needs to be able to respond.
In response to the attempted coup, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova gave a particularly biting statement. "…the electoral system in the United States is archaic. It does not meet modern democratic standards, creating opportunities for numerous violations, and the American media have become an instrument for political struggle," she claimed. Russian state-media outlet TASS has attempted to present a neutral presentation of the day, but also downplays it by benignly calling the terrorists “protestors” and saying Trump was trying to instill calm. Meanwhile, RT News, another Russian state-media outlet, has been peddling out a range of conspiracy theories simultaneously supporting the coup while also condemning it. The Kremlin has also been heavily responsible for feeding Trump’s rabid supporters with dangerous conspiracy theories that helped lay the groundwork for last week’s violence. However, in contrast to 2016, many of the conspiracy theories did not originate from Russia, but from domestic groups and Trump himself. All the Kremlin had to do was keep these hoaxes in circulation and amplify them. Together with China, Russia is portraying the attempted coup as a clear example of American hypocrisy and the decline of American power. The following day, Konstantin Kosachyov, who chairs the foreign affairs committee in the Federation Council, posted on Facebook, “This, alas, is actually the bottom. I say this without a shadow of gloating. America no longer charts the course and therefore has lost all right to set it. And even more so to impose on others.” The coup attempt is a gift to the Kremlin. Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Brexit referendum, European elections, and other democratic events all helps to achieve the Kremlin’s foreign policy goal of a divided West. By reinforcing conspiracy theorists, nationalists, populists, and other anti-democracy forces, Russia and China seek to prevent the development of a global democratic coalition on the world stage.
The clear display of Trump’s dangerous instability led some observers and leaders to be afraid of what he might try to do with the U.S. military (or nuclear weapons) before he was evicted from the White House. Following the violence, U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi talked with General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, about nuclear protocol and the danger of Trump’s erraticism. Widespread concern over a single person, particularly an unhinged wannabe dictator, having sole authority to launch a nuclear strike could prove to be a boon to arms control advocates in the Biden Administration. That anxiety can be leveraged to seek congressional and international resolutions to decentralize that authority in nuclear powers to eliminate unilateral decisions would help build trust and minimize risk escalation.
As Beijing expands its influence through grey-zone operations and the Belt and Road Initiative and Moscow attempts the same, Trump’s autogolpe helps further U.S. diplomatic isolation even as a new president takes over. Fortunately for U.S. relations with its traditional allies, Biden carries with him President Obama’s diplomatic clout and good will from his past tenure as vice-president, which will make repairing those relationships much easier. However, despite this, Trump’s bitter legacy will cast a long shadow on Biden’s goal of a Summit of Democracies. While I am sure Kosachyov was in fact gloating in his Facebook post, his remark is very apt to the challenges Biden will face in restoring the United States’ diplomatic reputation. If Biden is unable to secure democracy at home and restore faith in elections, he will struggle to maintain his Summit. Trump’s insurrection will embolden wannabe dictators in other liberal democracies. Earlier this week, Burma’s fledgling democracy was overthrown by a military junta with the same rhetorical ammunition as Trump: false claims of fraud after losing in the recent general election. As Israel is embroiled in its own electoral crisis, will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu step down if he loses or will he attempt his own autogolpe as he had sabotaged the recent coalition government? In Brazil, President Jair Bolsonaro, who praises the country’s former military dictatorship and Trump’s coup attempt, suffered a big blow in the 2020 elections. Will he attempt his own autogolpe in 2022? As Europe struggles against the evils of nationalism, populism, and authoritarianism, will U.S. allies there see their own autogolpes like the gradual ones that occurred in Poland and Hungary or will the devastating effects of Brexit and January 6 sober them up?
Biden must work simultaneously to secure democracy at home and in Summit members. However, this cannot be treated with the same American savior complex that has dominated the postwar landscape. The safeguarding of democracy in the United States requires the active support and commitment of its allies. Doing such will help strengthen his broad coalition which will enable his agenda against abuses by Russia, China, and other bad actors. None of this should be left to misguided notions of American exceptionalism or isolationism. In the age of the internet, social media, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, threats to liberal democracy and civil society know no borders and cannot be solved without a transnational alliance. The United States and its allies must reevaluate how to intervene against actors willfully spreading misinformation and destabilizing liberal democracy in mutual coordination and support. The toothless response from the United States and European Union to the protests in Russia is testament to the deep need for an empowered democratic coalition. Trump’s attempted autogolpe was not ex nihilo, but rather came to be after years of deliberate lying and manipulation not just by Trump, but by the people who made him possible. January 6 should stand as reminder to everyone the old adage, “United we stand, divided we fall.”
Mitch Ruhl is a national security specialist based in Washington, DC. Born and raised in Cincinnati, Ohio and later living in Denver, Colorado, he moved to the United Kingdom in 2014 to pursue his Bachelors of Arts in History at the University of Kent. He moved back to the United States to Washington, D.C. with his Masters in Modern History in 2018. He is passionate about 20th and 21st Century military history—particularly that of the World Wars—foreign policy, defense policy, and the transatlantic relationships.
Biden Inauguration Locked Down Capitol is by Geoff Livingston and is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
