COVID-19 Lockdown Hit Migrants the Hardest. India Needs Them to Reboot the Economy
By Mohit Saini
Millions of migrants have been trapped in major Indian cities since March 24, the day Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the inevitable decision of nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Overnight, these migrants became unemployed and stranded, and a lack of food and a way home forced millions of migrants into starvation. All these exposed the deep-rooted social inequalities in India.
Over two months in, the government has failed to communicate and launch any comprehensive plan to bring life-saving relief for migrants. The government’s apathy turned an economic and health crisis into a humanitarian crisis too. India needs out-of-the-box policy measures to support migrants, who play a vital role in fueling the economy. The scale and complexity of the crisis requires strong harmonization between central and state governments.
The government of India data suggests that 450 million, or 37 percent of Indians are transient migrants, moving for work on a seasonal basis. Most migrants are casual laborers or daily-wage earners with income ranging from USD 2 to USD 10, with little job security and no health insurance. They live in crowded residences and have meager savings in hand. Most migrants come from poor states, and work in major economic epicenters like Delhi, Mumbai, and Hyderabad. 88 percent of migrants in Delhi and 50 percent in Mumbai are from other states. They are being forced to stay in cities reporting the most COVID-19 cases in India.
For many migrants, social distancing is an abstract concept. Hundreds of migrants were beaten by police for violating the lockdown. Such brutality forced nearly half a million migrants to hide from police and trek hundreds of miles to flee possible starvation in cities and return to their villages. Several died during their journey, and those who reached their destinations were disinfected with chemical solutions.
In March, Modi’s government announced a USD 23 billion fiscal stimulus to assist the poorest of those affected by the lockdown. Economists suggested that the package was just a drop in the ocean when more than 659 million Indians are poor. Amidst wide anticipation, the government recently announced an economic relief package equivalent to about 10 percent of India's GDP. This, too, came under close scrutiny as various experts and firms raised questions over the true size and effectiveness of the stimulus.
The initial package included cash transfers and food rations to millions of poor people with ration cards issued by state governments. However, many laborers are not registered as informal workers, and are therefore ineligible for cash transfers. Over 100 million people entitled to get subsidized food rations may be excluded due to outdated data. Even if migrants are found eligible, they may be unable to reach the states where they are registered to receive the subsidized food grains.
Mass migration makes it difficult for the governments to document and register the migrant workers across India. A proposed universal “one nation, one ration card” scheme is one way to address this issue. This portability scheme will enable migrant workers and their family members to access subsidized food rations from any fair price shop in the country.
One of the top priorities of the governments should be to address food insecurity. Like Delhi, states can create special provisions to feed migrants without ration cards. The central government should release more food stocks to the states either for free or at subsidized rates. The existing infrastructure of the school meal program can be utilized to operate community kitchens for migrants reaching their villages.
The governments should facilitate the return of migrants to their homes. In consultation with state leaders, the central government can classify states based on intrastate and interstate migration. The governments can then differentiate major source and destination states to plan the shortest routes for special trains. On-the-spot testing should be prioritized instead of the current process of getting medical certificates from specific hospitals.
Furthermore, the central government’s decision to increase wages should be coupled with providing work and timely payments. This has the potential to improve consumer spending and boost micro-businesses in rural areas. For instance, migrants registered in India’s largest rural employment scheme can be employed locally to build small hospitals and improve the healthcare infrastructure of rural India. This is especially important since In 2016, India ranked 145 on a global healthcare access and quality index as recently as 2016.
The lockdown in its current form can have serious consequences for farmers and migrant workers, and increasing the minimum support price for a few crops can be an essential step to prevent a financial burden on the farmers. The state governments can permit the limited movement of the migrant workforce to support agricultural activities. It is essential to support the harvesting of rabi (spring) crops and the sowing of kharif (monsoon/autumn) crops.
Migrants fuel the Indian economy. They provide the much-needed human capital to provide a better standard of living to 1.3 billion Indians. In the next few months, billions of dollars will be infused into the market in the hopes of revitalizing the economy. But the Indian economy cannot reboot until its 450 million most vulnerable migrants are pulled out of the humanitarian crisis. It is time for India to act.
Mohit Saini is a Master of International Affairs candidate at The Fletcher School. He is specializing in impact investing and social finance with a regional focus on Asia and Africa. Before Fletcher, he worked as an international development consultant in India, Bangladesh, Malawi, and Uganda. You can connect with Mohit on LinkedIn.
