Election 2020: U.S.-German Relations Need a Reset
By Ronja Ganster
One year before Angela Merkel’s sixteen-year tenure as Germany’s chancellor ends, ties with the United States are at a historic low. Many Germans hope that the upcoming U.S. elections can provide the necessary impetus to return to a stronger transatlantic relationship, but their hopes are likely to be disappointed, no matter who will be the next U.S. president.
Since the beginning of the Cold War, the United States has worked hard in fostering a close U.S.-German relationship. For decades, it deterred the Soviet Union and in 1989, President George H.W. Bush was the first world leader to strongly advocate for German reunification. In return, the United States expected Germany to step up on the world stage and become a “partner in leadership.” But views on both sides of the Atlantic soon started to diverge. Despite similar values and foreign policy objectives, the United States relied on military power as a central tool, whereas Germany put a larger emphasis on diplomacy. In 2003, Germany’s decision not to join the US invasion of Iraq profoundly upset the relationship. Berlin preferred to deal with Iraq through the United Nations while the US felt betrayed by a partner it had unconditionally supported for many years.
The election of U.S. President Obama promised to be a turning point. Obama soon called Merkel one of his closest allies and a personal friend. Together they brokered diplomatic successes like the Paris Climate Accords and the Iran Deal. But several bumps along the road hinted to the fact that U.S.-German relations weren’t as stable as they once had been. In 2011, Germany once again upset the United States when it abstained in the UN Security Council on the question of a military intervention in the Libya. In 2013, the revelation that the United States had been tapping Merkel’s cellphone further undermined the trust.
In 2016, President Trump’s election turned past tensions into a historic rift. On the campaign trail, he accused Merkel of “ruining Germany” by welcoming more than one million refugees. In office, he sharply attacked Germany’s trade surplus, its low defense spending and the construction of the Russian-German “Nord Stream 2” natural gas pipeline. Berlin responded by openly questioning the reliability of the United States, and Merkel asserted, “we Europeans really have to take our fates in our own hands.”
This current process of transatlantic decoupling is regrettable because both countries would clearly benefit from better relations. Germany – and the European Union (EU) – need the United States as a strong partner to act on central foreign policy issues of our time, from combating climate change and the global health crisis to protecting the multilateral order. Despite ambitious plans to turn into a global geopolitical actor, internal divisions have prevented the EU from exerting more influence on the world stage. After Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accords and the Iran Deal, the EU has struggled to uphold the agreements without U.S. economic and military power at its side. Conversely, good relations with Berlin are the key to Washington’s ties with the EU. After Britain’s final departure from the EU on December 31, Germany’s influence in the bloc will only continue to increase. Moreover, any attempts by the United States to be “tough on China” are toothless if the EU isn’t onboard with U.S. policy. After all, the EU is China’s biggest trading partner, and Germany alone provides 5 percent of Chinese imports. In the security sphere, Germany will continue to play a central role for U.S. military deployments. Despite President Trump’s announcement to withdraw troops from the country, Germany is still home to the U.S. European Command and hosts U.S. nuclear weapons.
If Biden wins on November 3, 2020, improving ties with allies should be one of his foreign policy goals. But there are many pressing issues competing for U.S. attention, including their relationships with Iran, China, and Russia. On top of that, Biden will face a multitude of domestic challenges, limiting his ability to dedicate much time to Germany and Europe. In Germany, the window of opportunity to actively improve U.S.-German relations is likely to close in the medium term. Come 2021, Berlin will be busy with political campaigns ahead of the fall elections and foreign policy does not usually play a central role during election season. No matter who succeeds Merkel as chancellor, it will take years until they have gained the confidence and power on the world stage that she has amassed over the past fifteen years.
Biden’s election as president could be the first step towards U.S.-German reconciliation. Nonetheless, the countries’ different approaches to the use of military force and their domestic challenges will likely prevent a return to close transatlantic relations in the near future. This is unfortunate given that the two countries still share the common vision of a more peaceful, democratic and multilateral world and their combined economic and diplomatic weight is key to achieving this goal.
Ronja Ganster is a second-year M.A. International Security student at Sciences Po Paris and is currently on exchange at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. She holds a B.A. in International Relations from the Technical University of Dresden, Germany. Her fields of expertise are foreign and security policy with a regional focus on the EU and transatlantic relations.
Cover Photo is by NATO and is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.
