Humanitarian Intentions, Catastrophic Outcomes: Lessons from Libya's Dam Disaster

By Christopher Zambakari

Can a humanitarian intervention cause a dam to break? Can good intentions for effective humanitarian action lead to catastrophic outcomes?

The short answer is yes. The long answer is more complex, if not disheartening. The catastrophe is both a natural disaster and a human-made one.

The catastrophic effects of civil war, anarchy and the destruction of Libya’s infrastructure over more than a decade of conflict are daunting enough when considered individually. Combine their sum parts though and the outcome is devastating. Their potential for death and destruction became all too clear overnight on September 10, 2023. 

On that evening, storms in north-eastern Libya caused the Abu Mansur and Al Bilad dams to collapse, which resulted in flash-flooding waters from the Wadi Derna watershed, which washed through the port cities of Derna. The raging water – reaching some 20 feet in height – virtually wiped Derna off the Libyan map. 

The World Bank and the United Nations report that Libya's flood resulted in 4,352 deaths, 44,800 internally displaced, with an estimated 8,000 people missing, and affected 1.5 million people. The World Bank stated that Libya’s devastating flood constituted a climate and environmental catastrophe that requires USD 1.8 billion in reconstruction and recovery.

One hospitalized victim who had sought refuge in an abandoned building as all hell broke loose reported: “The water was rising with us until we got to the fourth floor. We could hear screams. From the windows, I saw cars and bodies being carried away by the water. It lasted an hour or an hour and a half – but for us it felt like a year.”

Answers to how and why this catastrophe occurred can be found by considering the year 2011. That was the year in which Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi was hunted down, found in a drainage pipe and assassinated. Under the guise of a UN-endorsed humanitarian intervention by NATO and its Western-based partners, then-U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made light of the mission, noting, “We came, we saw, he died.” What she, and just about everyone else, failed to mention was that, at best, fingers were crossed that Libya would somehow emerge as a democracy and a new bastion of human rights.

Intervention gives way to chaos 

The Rand Corp. notes that the military intervention in Libya significantly altered the civil conflict's trajectory. It halted and reversed the momentum, preventing Gaddafi's regime from suppressing the opposition movement. However, without a functioning government in place, this military action led to a collapsed Libyan state, creating a power vacuum, political instability, and corroding infrastructure. 

Libyan scholar and political analyst Mustafa Fetouri has remarked that, in the decade following Gaddafi’s ouster, Libya has become increasingly unstable, while more terrorist organizations have taken root.

In the journal International Security, Strauss Center Distinguished Scholar Alan Kuperman highlights how Libya was initially praised as a model humanitarian intervention under the doctrine of Responsibility to Protect, but two years after Gaddafi’s fall, the country emerged as a case study in precisely how not to intervene. President Barack Obama later admitted that the aftermath of Libya was the 'worst mistake' of his presidency.

In the aftermath of Gaddafi's fall, the U.S.-led NATO intervention failed to establish a stable and functional government due to several factors: a lack of a post-intervention transition plan, resurfacing tribal, regional, and ideological divisions, continued external influences supporting rival factions competing for oil resources, and a deteriorating security situation caused by armed militias and extremist groups. The absence of a coherent strategy, along with Libya's complex political landscape and the proliferation of armed groups, hindered the formation of a unified government and complicated efforts to restore stability and effective governance across the country.

No matter the “humanitarian” objectives of the air strikes, Libyans saw ground calamities and a full-scale civil war, which resulted in mass civilian casualties and widespread infrastructure damage. NATO’s intervention in Libya presents a clear example of the contradictions inherent in humanitarian intervention. As noted in a report by the British Parliament, while the objective of the intervention was to protect civilians from Gaddafi’s government, it “drifted into an opportunist policy of regime change.” 

From intervention to catastrophe 

Even before Gaddafi was “removed” and the government “restored” in Libya in 2011, the Abu Mansur and Al Bilad dams – two clay-core embankment structures – were in need of maintenance. Both dams were built in the 1970s, with the upriver Abu Mansur dam measuring at 246 feet high (75 meters) and holding 18–22 million cubic meters of water, while the smaller Al Bilad dam held 1.5 million cubic meters of water. Cracks were reported in both dams as early as 1998, and reports claim that the dams had not received maintenance since 2002, despite funds allocated for that purpose. 

Maintenance, or the lack thereof, was a critical factor in the destruction of the two Wadi Derna dams. It was largely ignored during four decades of Gaddafi rule and in the decade after his demise. Just as critical, the ongoing post-2011 split within Libya’s body politic, and the power struggles at regional and international levels, created a fragmented administrative structure that failed to provide adequate warning and response mechanisms. A sophisticated, technologically up-to-date meteorological service capable of issuing essential alerts and facilitating efficient emergency management and evacuation procedures was also missing.

Quentin Shaw, vice president of the International Commission on Dams, emphasizes the safety measures that failed overnight at Derna on September 10. Government measures that are central to disaster response, such as emergency preparedness plans and warning and evacuation protocols, failed to be rolled out effectively. In the same Engineering Record-News report, Hannah Cloke, a British hydrologist, notes that effective flood forecasting requires good rainfall and river data, well-maintained instruments, and clear evacuation plans. Unfortunately, Libya lacks the economic and political conditions for adequate early warning systems.

What hath humanity wrought?

While it is difficult to identify the exact moment in which political wranglings tipped the scale against Libya’s subsequent advancement, and just when basic human services and safety were shelved as priorities of the evolving government, Libya's dam collapse reveals the dire consequences of political instability and neglect. Years of government conflict led to infrastructure failure, causing loss of life, property damage, and economic ruin. This disaster shows how political turmoil directly impacts citizens' safety and livelihoods.

The destabilization of Libya

The 2011 NATO intercession can be argued ad nauseam. Gaddafi’s complicated and controversial legacy is marked by a mix of progress and brutal repression. For example, under his rule, Gaddafi did not permit the establishment of civil organizations (and carried out outrageous human rights violations), but utilized oil revenue to bolster social welfare initiatives, resulting in improvements to healthcare and education, and lifting Libya into a growing economy with high literacy rates.

But, the power vacuum created by his removal enabled armed factions and rogue military militias to flourish. The country descended into bedlam. Rival groups grappled for control, with armed militias, new security forces, and tribal fighters running roughshod across wide swaths of the country. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) soon gained a foothold in Libya.

Dams and infrastructure fell to the wayside in the midst of  internal turmoil that resulted in  the slow erosion of civilian infrastructure, from the maintenance of dams to the upkeep of a communications system and modernization of hospitals. 

Economic collapse is inevitable when the foundational support for roads, railways, dams, water supply, electrical grids, telecommunications, and other essential services and infrastructural support collapses. In the years since the NATO-led intervention, the country’s GDP per capita has plummeted and its population has faced dire socio-economic conditions. The impact of climate change has exacerbated the situation, with devastating floods causing widespread death and destruction. 

Leadership in decision-making positions have failed to provide services for their people, but before that, the intervention failed. 

Conclusion

NATO's intervention in Libya created a power vacuum, which led to civil war and state collapse. This disrupted the economy, especially the oil industry, and resulted in neglected infrastructure, including dams. Institutional decay and corruption further hindered maintenance and development efforts.

The collapse of the dams and subsequent loss of lives in Libya marks an opportunity to reconsider not only the critical importance of infrastructure investment but also the unintended consequences – when not fully considered or understood – of military actions taken in the name of human rights. The failure to account for the complexities of the situation and the lack of a comprehensive post-intervention plan resulted in at least one catastrophic outcome for the Libyan people. Further instability is the result, limiting people’s ability to contend with modern-day challenges. What has happened since 2011, has eroded infrastructure priorities and degraded capabilities.

What remains uncertain is whether the tragedy in Libya would have occurred if the country had a functioning and unified government, if the intervention had never taken place, and if the civil war had not happened.

Without a functional administrative state to deploy technical assistance and capacity-building interventions, Libya’s catastrophe appears likely to be compounded in the years ahead, hindering its recovery and resilience-building against future disasters.

Christopher Zambakari holds a Doctor of Law and Policy degree from Northeastern University and is chief executive officer of The Zambakari Advisory. He is a Hartley B. and Ruth B. Barker Endowed Rotary Peace Fellow and the assistant editor of The Bulletin of the Sudan Studies Association. His areas of research and expertise are international law and security, political reform and economic development, governance and democracy, conflict management and prevention, and nation- and state-building processes in Africa and in the Middle East. His work has been published in leading law, economic and public policy journals.

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