EU Parliament Elections - March of the Right?
By Ankita Dutta
Introduction
The success of right-wing parties in Europe has captured the attention of policymakers and scholars worldwide. The movement of these parties from the political fringe to mainstream politics represents one of the most critical developments in the European Union (EU) in the past three decades. While there is no denying that their electoral fortunes have witnessed substantial ebbs and flows, they have captured the imagination of the population at large. Since 2021, there has been a consistent upward trajectory in their vote share and, in some cases, an increase in the number of these parties becoming part of the government—such as in Italy and Hungary. Several right-wing parties have also witnessed substantial vote increases, including the People’s Party (PVV) in the Netherlands (winning thirty-seven seats in the 2023 elections as compared to seventeen in 2021), the National Rally in France (Marine Le Pen increased her vote share from over 33 percent in the 2017 Presidential election to 41 percent in 2022), and Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany (the party increased its vote share by over 18 percent in 2023 state elections).
The critical question that requires deeper consideration is why these parties have been able to make such an impact. The straightforward answer lies in the fact that these parties have been able to capitalize on the crisis of confidence in mainstream parties, where it is felt that current governments are unable to handle challenges faced by the population, including rising cost of living, high inflation, migration, etc. Even though many of these parties do not hold office, they have still been able to influence the government’s decision-making on various policy issues, legitimizing their own positions and arguments in the process. The year 2024 is crucial for right-wing parties as they have geared up for this month’s European Parliament elections. This brief looks at right-wing politics in the EU and analyzes its likely impact on theEU Parliament elections.
March of the Right
There is no denying that right-wing parties have gained popularity among voters in the past few years. Analyzing the past few elections in Europe, a clear picture emerges: these parties have formed governments in Hungary, Italy, and Slovakia; they are part of the government in Sweden and Finland; and they represent the second-largest party in Germany, even ahead of the coalition members of the government. In more recent elections, Geert Wilders’ party in the Netherlands won the election and was given a chance to form a government, although Wilders’government failed to form due to a breakdown in coalition negotiations. Similarly, in its recent elections, Portugal has, somewhat surprisingly, shifted toward the right, with the far-right party Chega consolidating its position as the country’s third-largest political force. Moreover, many right-wing parties are leading in polls ahead of the EU Parliamentary elections, such as the Freedom Party in Austria and the National Rally in France. These parties have capitalized on the numerous crises that the EU has gone through in the past few years, such as the financial crisis, migration crisis, cost of living crisis due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the conflict in Ukraine. All of this adds to the disillusionment and insecurity faced by the population and fortifies their belief that these issues have not been tackled properly by mainstream parties.
Taking a cue from such disillusionment, many right-wing parties have been able to present themselves as viable alternatives to mainstream parties. In many cases, right-wing parties have gathered a substantial enough share of the vote to influence and set the political agenda, especially on the issues of migration and climate change. This trend appears likely to continue in 2024, not only at the national level but also at the European level, with early signs pointing towards a right-leaning EU Parliament.
European Parliament Elections—The Bigger Picture
The European Parliament is the only directly-elected EU legislative body with broad supervisory and budgetary responsibilities. Its key role stems from the fact that it is the only center of democratic debate at the EU level on various policies and issues. It cooperates with the European Council, and its work is largely based on a proposal presented by the European Commission. The important powers that reside with the Parliament include regulation of the single market, spending of public money through the EU budget, and consent procedure for adoption of international agreements.
The 2019 elections drew substantial interest in the workings of the EU Parliament, and the 2024 elections are expected to do the same. The 2019 elections had put forth a fragmented Parliament with the dynamics between the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) faltering. The key issue that emerged was rising populism and the subsequent rise of right-wing parties, which affected the Parliament's makeup, which had long been dominated by the ‘grand coalition’ of EPP and S&D. This was also why there was a strong focus on the elections.
Image 1: Vote share of the EU Parliament, 2014-2024
Source: European Parliament 2019-2024 Constitutive Session, https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/european-results/2019-2024/constitutive-session/
Notably, while the right-wing parties were certainly able to increase their vote share, they were unable to form a majority. However, with the increasing number of member states with very active right-wing parties, either in government or in the opposition, there is a palpable fear among the mainstream parties that the cordon sanitaire will be broken at the EU level.
According to various polls, the surge of right-wing parties in the 2024 EU Parliament is expected to exceed that of 2019. For example, Politico pointed out that right-wing and Euroskeptic parties are expected to surge in the European election at the expense of centrist parties and that this is reflective of the larger trend across national elections in Europe where voters have given the mandate to these conservative and right-wing parties to govern. According to the analysis, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) can take up to eighty nine of the 720 seats, while the far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group can gather around seventy-seven seats primarily due to the increased vote share of parties like Brothers of Italy and AfD. Meanwhile, the seat share of the EPP and S&D is expected to witness a marginal decline.
Similarly, an analysis by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) also pointed to the increasing vote share of right-wing parties in the Parliament. As Image two highlights, the ECR and ID are expected to increase their seat share to eighty-five and ninety-eight, respectively, as compared to sixty-two and seventy-three in the 2019 elections.
Image 2: Projected vote share, 2024
Source: BBC, June 10, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cnddkx7redro
June 2024 Results
The election results of June 2024 highlighted, as expected, the increasing vote share of the populist right-wing parties, especially in France and Italy. The National Rally received nearly a third of the votes, while Italian Prime Minister Meloni’s Brothers of Italy was backed by more than a quarter of voters. Interestingly, if these elections are to be considered as referendums for the national governments, they resulted in some unexpected outcomes. In France, the overwhelming results for the National Rally led President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections to occur in late June 2024. No other leader reacted in this manner, though the negative results for ruling parties in Germany, Spain and Hungary do not bode well for their leadership. This trend further points toward the fragmentation of the European political party system. If these right-wing parties are unable to form the governing coalition, they are expected to emerge as a very powerful opposition voice and will be able to influence the policy agenda at the EU level for the first time in EU Parliament history.
Expecting the Unexpected?
The shift toward the right is expected to have critical consequences for policy choices at the EU level. The outcomes of these elections could influence the geopolitical goals of the European Commission and the Council to a certain degree. The elected parliament will possess the power to either obstruct specific policies, like the implementation of the Green Deal, or advocate for stricter stances on issues including migration, support for Ukraine, EU sovereignty, and EU expansion. There also may be increased pressure to advance nationalistic agendas over a European agenda, as national governments with powerful right-wing parties and the EU Parliament’s right-wing governing coalition consider working together to advance nationalistic agendas over a European agenda. Although it should be noted that in practical terms, the policy-making power of the EU Parliament is rather limited, it is an important assembly for any approval of policies for implementation at the European level. These developments need to be seen in juxtaposition to expectations of a Trump 2.0 administration in the United States. Whether Trump is elected or not, the EU would still have to brace itself for the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal from the world. This possibility may also lead right-wing parties to pull away from international partnerships and interdependence in favor of national and European interests.
However, a silver lining in this process is that the right-wing parties, to a large extent, have been unable to get their agendas in sync with each other. This was also the case during the 2019 elections, when they failed to present a united front. For example, Austria’s Freedom Party and Italy’s Lega have criticized the EU’s outlook toward Russia. In contrast, the Brothers of Italy party and Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party have doubled their support for Ukraine. Moreover, there are too many differences among them at the national level that it is difficult for them to reconcile their interests at the EU level. For example, in January 2024, the National Rally’s Le Pen disagreed with AfD, her German ally in the EU Parliament elections, regarding the mass expulsion of migrants from the continent. This stands true for the 2024 elections as well. If these parties were to form a single group, the group would become the second-largest block in Parliament, only behind the European People’s Party. The dichotomies and disagreements within them make it an unlikely scenario, but the group’s sheer size would nonetheless put rightward pressure on EU policy.
Right-wing parties have made a substantial impact on the European political system. The reasons for their rise are multifaceted, including the personalization of politics, societal alienation, dissatisfaction with the current government and political system, increasing economic pressures, and migration. The EU Parliament elections are also going to be reflective of these sentiments, and right-wing parties are going to capitalize on growing disillusionment. Whether these EU Parliament elections can break a long-running inter-European liberal tradition and lead to a right-wing governing coalition remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the specter of the right is not going anywhere.
Dr .Ankita Dutta is Assistant Professor, Centre for European Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Prior to this she was Fellow with Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi where she was engaged in research on Europe. This included producing analytical articles on the politics, economy and strategic issues of the region. Prior to joining Observer Research Foundation, she was associated with Indian Council of World Affairs, Sapru House, New Delhi as a Research Fellow for Europe. She has a PhD in European Studies from Centre for European Studies, School of International Relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. She has published extensively on a variety of issues including on EU-India and also participated in various international and national conferences on Indian foreign policy, EU-India relations and broader strategic developments within Europe, and European politics - both at member state and EU level.
