Macron May Not Be Lebanon’s Savior After All
By Cilina Nasser
Every time we think we have reached rock bottom in Lebanon, we discover that there is an even deeper layer, which we have never imagined existed.
Last week’s massive explosion of an estimated 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate at Beirut Port, which was stored in conditions falling short of safety standards for six years, has become a screaming example of Lebanon’s corrupt spoils-sharing system. The explosion that took place on August 4th killed at least 172 people, injured over 5,000, and damaged 300,000 homes.
Public anger against Lebanon’s political elite, which is widely blamed for the explosion, is now facing an attempt to silence it with the passing of a two-week state of emergency in Beirut declared by Parliament yesterday. This state of emergency will grant extensive powers to the military. An initial two-week emergency was first declared by the government in an emergency session the day of the explosion, but Parliament’s approval yesterday makes the measure official, allowing the Lebanese army to censor the media, close areas of assembly, and set curfews at particular times. It also expands the jurisdiction of military tribunals to try civilians for all security-related ‘crimes.”
The state of emergency is imposed against a backdrop of large demonstrations calling for the fall of the political establishment responsible for the Beirut explosion. A Lebanese investigation has been started to identify those responsible for leaving the ammonium nitrate at the Port for so long and to determine the causes of the explosion. Calls are growing for the domestic investigation to be replaced with an international inquiry due to concerns over the independence of the Judicial Council, particularly since four out of its five judges are appointed by the Cabinet. Further, there have been calls for holding early parliamentary elections.
Only one MP objected to imposing the State of Emergency in Beirut at the first parliamentary session held after the explosion. This is due to the fact that a majority of MPs belong to parties that were in power in government from 2014 to 2020: the time that ammonium nitrate was left stored unsafely at the Port, despite security and other reports about the dangers this chemical material presented. These governments included political groups allied with as well as opposed to Hezbollah; however, it is in their interest that voices calling for accountability and transparency be silenced. Another eight MPs resigned earlier in protest of the corruption and negligence by the governments that led to the Beirut explosion.
Parliament’s declaration of the State of Emergency also came as US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs David Hale arrived in Lebanon as the country is seeing a flurry of visits of foreign officials, of whom the highest-ranking was French President Emmanuel Macron two days after the blast. Macron was treated as a savior and given a hero’s welcome on a visit to an area heavily damaged by the explosion and deeply impacted by 10 months of massive economic and financial hardship. These crises have left almost every Lebanese and resident of Lebanon affected as a result of the devaluation of the Lebanese lira and a sharp shortage in hard currency. The Central Bank of Lebanon has been imposing strict restrictions on cash withdrawals by depositors in all Lebanese banks, particularly restrictions on the hard currency, since October 2019 whereby depositors have stopped having access to their lifelong savings and/ or salaries.
While many are pinning hopes on Macron to push for real, genuine political change that may pull the country out of its darkness, there are strong indications that the French president is seeking to keep the powerful political players around, as he called for a ‘unity’ government to handle the aftermath of the Beirut explosion. This is despite the fact that six days after the blast, Prime Minister Hassan Diab, whose government was supported by Hezbollah and its Christian ally President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement, resigned.
Anti-Hezbollah sentiment was heightened after the Beirut explosion among large sections of the Lebanese society. While other political groups are notorious for their widespread and systematic corruption, the primary blame on Hezbollah is due to the armed group’s military superiority and therefore political dominance. There are also some who are accusing Hezbollah of owning the ammonium nitrate and therefore of being responsible for the explosion.
Despite the animosity, the head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc, MP Mohamad Raad, was the only MP who got to hold a private but brief meeting with Macron. The French president met the other representatives of parliamentary blocs together. This reflects a trend as Macron told Trump ahead of Sunday’s donor conference for Beirut that the US policy of pressure or abstention can play into the hands of Hezbollah and Iran. Further, a week before the explosion, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian’s visit to Lebanon included a visit to an office of a secular NGO in Haret Hreik, one of the southern Beirut suburbs under the control of Hezbollah, despite the fact that the NGO’s headquarters is located elsewhere in Beirut.
Only Hezbollah’s military wing is on France’s list of ‘terrorist organizations, while Britain designated the entire group with its political wing as terrorist in 2019, and Germany in April 2020. In the past, Germany played a crucial role as a mediator in at least three operations of swapping prisoners between Hezbollah and Israel. Now, France is the only powerful EU state that can publicly engage with Hezbollah and be accepted by a wide-range of political actors, particularly with the leading role that Macron played in hosting the CEDRE conference to support Lebanon's development. The conference secured over US$11 billion in loans and grants on condition of implementing sectoral and other reforms, which the Lebanese governments have failed to do so far.
In a meeting with a selected group of representatives of civil society, which has played a crucial role in the revolution, Macron placed the ball in their court asking them to come up with practical proposals that could lead to real political change.
For now, many here are concerned that political discussions appear to be heading towards a yet another ‘unity’ government. Will the Lebanese be able to force the unity government to fall before it is even formed? Will the army use its sweeping powers granted to it by the State of Emergency to stop people from expressing their rejection?
Macron promised to return to Lebanon in September to keep a close eye on the progress in Lebanon. Will he receive another hero’s welcome by the same people who treated him as a savior? Maybe not.
Cilina Nasser is a Beirut-based independent researcher and expert on human rights ,who also works on transitional justice issues. She has worked extensively on investigating human rights abuses and violations of international humanitarian law, primarily in Syria and Lebanon, as well as other countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
Cover Photo is by World Scouting and is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
