To Stop Waves of Refugees, the West Must Address the Main Driver of Syrian Displacement: Assad’s Terror
By Dr. Anas Al-Fatih
Since December 1, 2019, more than one million people in Syria’s Idlib, mostly women and children, have been displaced by an onslaught of Bashar al-Assad’s forces and his Russian and Iranian allies. For perspective, this number is higher than the entire population of San Francisco.
The displaced primarily shelter in makeshift camps on the Turkish border, exposed to the extreme weather of an unusually cold winter. Dozens of people have already frozen to death or died of asphyxiation due to crude, improvised heaters in tents. The images of children frozen in their sleep or in their parents’ embrace are the latest additions to the gallery of haunting reminders of the suffering of Syrians extending over the last nine years.
Despite the extreme conditions of displacement, a large majority of them are not willing to return to a Syria under Assad’s rule or live under Russia-sponsored reconciliation agreements, as seen in a recent snap poll conducted by the Syrian Association for Citizens’ Dignity (SACD). They are desperate to cross into Turkey and continue toward Europe in search of safety for their children.
Why is it that these desperate people, despite the uncertainty of migration and despite the extreme conditions of displacement, refuse to return to the so-called “liberated” areas under Assad’s control? Understanding the answer to this question is of crucial importance, not only for all of those tasked with responding to the largest humanitarian crisis of our time, but also those involved in seeking long term solutions for the Syrian conflict. It is especially important for European countries and EU decision makers who believe that the solutions for the massive displacement of Syrians are in cash payments to Turkey to block movement to European shores, or in erecting barbed wire fences and militarizing their borders.
The first and the most powerful driver of this displacement is fear. The people of Idlib and all displaced Syrians who rose up against the brutality of Assad’s regime are dehumanized in the eyes of its forces and its Russian and Iranian allies to the point that their lives and dignity are deemed worthless.
Recent videos and photos emerging from the areas taken by the regime forces and Russia show cities and villages razed to the ground in merciless, indiscriminate bombardment designed to instill terror in the civilian population and make them flee. Assad’s soldiers have filmed themselves digging up graves and desecrating bodies in newly conquered areas as a kind of ultimate revenge to the “enemy.” This has a terrifying effect on the people who flee, who are right to wonder, if this is the type of action toward the dead, what are the living to expect? In several cases, the few civilians who remained in towns taken by the regime were executed on the street by Assad’s soldiers. This kind of conduct has sent a clear message about what would happen to civilians if they were to stay in or return to their hometowns.
Fear of revenge by the regime is not unique to the people desperately fleeing the annihilation of their communities in the latest onslaught in Idlib. This applies to the majority of Syrians displaced in camps such as al-Rukban, situated in a no man’s land on the southern border of Syria and Jordan. There, Syrians endure similarly harsh conditions— living in a de facto siege by the regime and Russian and Iranian forces—but refuse to return to Assad-held areas. Their fear is founded on the fate of those who accepted Russian “guarantees” and returned only to be subjected to detention, beatings and enforced disappearances.
An SACD report has found that “sixty-one percent of those forced to return to Assad-held areas reported that they or their close relative suffered at least one form of abuse including detention, enforced disappearance, forced recruitment, extortion, confiscation of property, discrimination, threats to be detained, accusation of treason, verbal and sexual harassment for women in regime check points and other forms of abuse.” Two-thirds of those asked indicated that they were planning to leave Assad-held areas again if they had the chance.
The Idlib crisis and the willingness of people to suffer the worst conditions of displacement fully exposed the harsh reality of Assad’s Syria. This and the recent violence in Daraa completely shattered the Syrian regime and Russia's narrative about a stable situation and good living conditions in Assad-held areas. It also exposed the danger of the language used by European policymakers in referring to displaced Syrians as “migrants” instead of refugees entitled to protection. These people are not risking their lives in trying to reach Europe in search of a better job, but to escape terror and find basic conditions of safety and dignity for their children.
It is clear that the long term solution remains in Syria itself, and in ensuring that the rights, safety and dignity of some thirteen million displaced Syrians form the foundation of any political solution to the conflict. Before that happens however, the West must recognize that the right to life and dignity of displaced Syrians, and their right not to be subject to refoulement is not someone else’s problem, and cannot be resolved with cash payments and barbed wire.
Addressing the main drivers of displacement of Syrians— terror and repression inflicted by Assad’s regime and its Russian and Iranian allies— is a problem that requires active and robust engagement by the West, which requires going beyond strongly worded statements. Ignoring them would only increase the plight of Syrians and have devastating and long lasting consequences that will go far beyond Syria and the region.
Dr. Anas Al-Fatih is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Syrian Association for Citizens' Dignity and former chairman of the Governorate Council of Deir Ezzor and ACU Syria vaccine team coordinator.
“Return To Homs” by Chaoyue 超越 PAN 潘 is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
