An Interview with Dr. Jason Xidias
On November 11, 2019, Dr. Jason Xidias, Lecturer in Politics and Global Studies at NYU Madrid responded to questions about the results of the November 10 Spanish general election. This interview was conducted by Eric Smith, Web Staff Editor with The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs.
FF: Which parties were the winners and losers in the November 10 snap election in Spain? What campaign issues led to this result?
JX: The biggest winner in the November 10 election was Vox, Spain’s far-right party. In 2016, it won about 50,000 votes, and today it has around 3.5 million. Furthermore, it increased its number of seats in parliament from 24 to 52, which accounts for 15 percent of the national vote. The party’s recent surge is due to a combination of factors, including corruption within the People’s Party (PP), frustration among many Spanish voters with the country’s current political stalemate, the Catalonian crisis, and the removal of Franco’s remains from the Valley of the Fallen. It must also be seen as part of a broader, international populist development that we have seen since the 2007 to 2008 global financial crisis.
The biggest loser in the election was Ciudadanos, which lost 47 seats in parliament. The party’s collapse is primarily due to its unwillingness to form a coalition government with the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) and its inconsistent political position. Just a short time ago, it claimed to be a centrist party, situated between the PSOE and PP. Recently, however, it has joined coalition governments in some of Spain’s regions with the PP and Vox.
The election was also a setback for the PSOE. Even though it won the largest representation in the Congress of Deputies, it lost three seats compared to the last election, in addition to losing the absolute majority in the Senate.
Unidas Podemos fell seven seats with respect to the last election and has suffered a significant decline since 2016. This is due to a number of factors, including the country’s slight economic recovery, internal divisions, and the party’s unpopular stance on the Catalonian crisis—it has defended the right to a referendum and considers those convicted of organizing an unconstitutional referendum in 2017 political prisoners. This position is unpopular among the vast majority of the Spanish population.
The PP has increased its number of seats by 22 in relation to the last election, which can be considered a victory. That said, this was its second worst electoral performance historically. Its reputation continues to be tarnished by corruption scandals and the ousting of Mariano Rajoy via a non-confidence vote in 2018.
Finally, the Spanish people were losers as this was the fourth election in the last four years, and the result was yet another stalemate that will require great political compromise in order to negotiate a coalition.
FF: Do you see any major party leaders in danger of losing their positions after this election?
JX: Albert Rivera has just announced that he is stepping down as leader of Cuidadanos. His party lost 47 seats in this election. It went from being a major contender on the right, and potential strong partner in a coalition, to becoming almost irrelevant with only 10 seats.
FF: Based on the results, is it more likely that a coalition of the right or left will be formed? What role do you see the far-right Vox and the regional parties playing in coalition talks?
JX: The PSOE won the highest number of seats in parliament, therefore it will have the first opportunity to form a coalition government. On the left, the results show that this would have to include Unidas Podemos, Más País, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV), and the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC). In this scenario, the two complexities are the tense relationships between the PSOE and Unidas Podemos and the PSOE and ERC. Regarding the former, Pablo Iglesias [leader of Podemos] will likely remain steadfast in his demand that any coalition between the two parties include positions and competencies for Unidas Podemos within the government. With respect to the ERC, it is a pro-independence party in Catalonia, which is not only in favor of a referendum, but also demands an amnesty for the Catalonian politicians convicted of organizing the unconstitutional referendum in 2017. If the PSOE could convince Ciudadanos and another small party to join the coalition in place of ERC, that would make the situation much easier for them. [However] whether or not Ciudadanos would be willing to give their seats to a leftist coalition remains to be seen. If the PSOE is able to negotiate one of the aforementioned arrangements, the next question would be: how long will this fragile coalition last?
The other post-electoral possibilities are: a grand coalition between the PSOE and PP. With the rise of Vox, however, this would be extremely risky for the PP, and could also have major consequences in future elections for the PSOE. [Another possibility is] a minority PSOE government through abstentions, or repeated elections (which would be very difficult to justify to already burned-out voters. Such a scenario would likely lead to a further rise of the right and far-right.
FF: What immediate issues will the next government have to address?
JX: The most important issue that a new government will have to try to address initially will be the budget. Beyond that, if there is a leftist coalition, social programs, such as improving the minimum wage, adjusting pensions to the cost-of-living, putting in place measures to address rising rent prices, and improving workers’ rights will all be on the agenda.
In addition, the new structure of the government will determine whether there is a softer or harder response to the Catalonian crisis.
FF: How long do you predict any of these coalitions will hold together? Will Spain have to head to the polls again soon?
JX: If a leftist coalition is formed, it will be fragile because of the tensions between PSOE and Unidas Podemos and the complex relationship between the PSOE and the regional parties. My hope is that an agreement can be reached and that it lasts for the full four-year cycle. Spanish voters deserve this political compromise and stability. Nonetheless, the possibility of a prolonged stalemate, an unstable alliance, and repeated or future snap elections are all possibilities.
Jason Xidias holds a PhD in European Politics from King's College London. He was also a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley. Currently, he lectures in Politics and Global Studies at New York University's Madrid campus. He is the author of several books with Routledge on key thinkers, concepts, and seminal works in political science.
"Camara de Diputados" by sincretic is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Courtesy of Mircea Turcan / Flickr
